WCLC 2021 | Comparing risk discrimination performance of lung cancer risk models

With an aim to improve the efficiency of lung screening programs, the UK uses risk prediction models to determine eligibility. Hilary Robbins, BSc, MSPH, PhD, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France, discusses a comparative study of lung cancer risk models: the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool (LCDRAT), the Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (LCRAT), the Bach model, PLCOm2012 and Liverpool Lung Project-v2 (LLPv2). The NHS uses PLCOm2012 and LLPv2 to determine lung cancer screening eligibility, but these models have not been validated in UK populations. Testing these models on three UK cohorts found that LCDRAT and LCRAT gave the best risk discrimination, followed by PLCOm2012. LLPv2 showed the worst risk discrimination. The study highlights the importance of validating risk models in a context-specific manner.